Date
: 22 / 04 /2024
Local
Stock : GBGAQRS (5226)
Global Market Overview:
1. From US economic data – Inflation (CPI) y/y
showed on 10th April 2024, it resulted 3.5% / 3.4% (consensus),
which also showed an improvement to past March (3.2%) and February (3.1%);
While the US Job Employment data also showed good results in recent, these all
good results might lead the US Federal Reserve (FED) to remain its high
interest rate (5.50%) on monetary policy in longer period.
2.
To Malaysia monetary policy update, our BNM has remained its interest rate, OPR
at 3.0% unchanged, and the market research has speculated that BNM would remain this
OPR (3.0%) though year 2024. (Please
read the screenshot news update below).
3.
Next, let us look at the comparison chart of US Bond Yield Spreads (10-Year vs
2-Year) with Malaysia Bond Yield Spreads (10-Year vs 3-Year):
a) From the above US and
Malaysia Yield Spreads comparison chart, we could see the US Yield Spreads has
been moving from DownTrend to current UpTrend in picture; While Malaysia Yield Spreads is moving
DownTrend (below Weekly Trendline).
b) From the global economy
study, we understand that most of global countries are likely to follow the
footprint of US economy, Malaysia is
small base economic country, thus it is likely to follow US as well.
c) Hence, from the above
comparison, I could expect that Malaysia Yield Spreads
would likely to change from DownTrend to NoTrend / UpTrend soon,
seeing that current Malaysia Yield Spreads movement become less momentum and it
is likely to happen a Momentum Escalation (market volume growing up) to
breakout the Weekly Trendline through my analysis here.
4.
Now, we look at the Global Investment Bank Score Cards to understand how the
market capital flow’s heading to which economy sectors:
a) From above the screenshot
study for Global Top 5 Equities Sectors Score Card and Global Top 5 High Yield
Sectors, both shows that the currently Market Institution likely to expect the Recession picture on
cycle, which represented by Real Estate, Oil & Gas, Auto/Truck
in sectors, while Finance sector take place as ansurance (NOT Bull
Market on stock Equities).
b) As result, I am looking
the Malaysia stock market would soon to turn on Recession Picture, that local government would slowly to announce some projects
to those construction sector and Property sector in local market.
5. Malaysia
Local Stock Recommendation (Study):
a)
After my analysis study on some local stocks in Construction sector, i have
picked one potential stock which has good odds to gain in next middle term.
Gabungan AQRS Berhad,
GBGAQRS (5226), currently share price at RM0.345
per share, which considered under-value, compare to
its NTA reading (0.9500). Meanwhile it P/E indicator shows 13.66, which
the share price to equity still in good recommendation range.
Next, let’s catch-up to
GBGAQRS financial summary update as below:
From the above screenshot of financial summary,
it shows that GBGAQRS company has performed good revenue and
profit / loss consistently in past 14 quarters of financial reports,
especially after our Malaysia Covid-19 lockdown (MCO). This shows that this
company are well managed for past 3 years.
Besides, our
local market research news reporting that (Please
read above screenshot), there is one major project in Penang, titled as Penang LRT Project, would be announced,
and tendered by some major construction companies under project Segment 1 and
Segment 2 in coming. Among the construction
companies, some
market research have pointed that GBGAQRS company is one of the 13 potential
construction companies might be benefited on this LRT project.
Next, let’s go to read the company
financial report for its prospects section:
From this financial report’s Prospect
(B) section dated on 31/12/2023, the company currently has
approx. RM1.0 Billion gross revenue that generated from its Construction
division (RM516.3 million) and Property division (RM507.3 million) until year
2025 plan.
Besides,
the company has planned to launch its 100-acre Gambang
Residensi Township project in 2024, which would target a gross revenue of RM 382.0 million
through its development.
The
company also reported to have its healthy
cash flow equivalents to RM124.9 million after reduction of total borrowings of 15.5% @ RM267.4 million (Q423) / RM303.1
million (Q422).
6. Malaysia Stock - GBGAQRS (5226) Weekly Chart Outlook
From
the weekly chart above, we could see the share price has
been moving from previous DownTrend to NoTrend currently in market;
Now, the share price is moving NoTrend and seem to be market volume accumulation
volume; So, with my fundamental and technical analysis, my bias is to Buy the GBGAQRS share!
HOPE my study and sharing would help
on your trading!
HOPE my study and sharing would help
on your trading!