Nov 2022: Market Direction

Last week US CPI started to drop below 8.0%. resulted 7.7%(y/y). This is triggering speculation on FED tightening policy going to end soon, normally the last interest hike would not bring a big impact on the USD, so the institution is likely to profit from its position on the USD slowly.

EURUSD

EURUSD spiked up 500 pips over and and able to breakout the 1.0370 level. Subsequently, the price keeps on bullish up to 1.0450 above and slowly stable down.

On 16th Nov, 2022, there was a Russian suddenly set a bombing over Ukraine and Poland border that caused at least two ppl dead. This sentiment again pushed USD temporarily stronger back and dropped 100 pips over again. We require to oversee Europe countries or Nato decisions on this issue, USD might temporarily get stronger few days. Now let's monitor closely to confirm this sentiment. Sometimes unexpected political sentiment might affect the market volatile due to sudden cases, need to let the market calm down 1st before we take the next step.
Whereas the US next employment data is on 02nd Dec 2022, which means in these 2 weeks market EURUSD is likely to be volatile in the big up and down swing, to wait for the next employment data

Equity Direction

Beware market going to be super uncertainty in equities indices, S&P500, DJ30, and Nikkei225 most heavy indices have reached the resistant level, and there is no reason to boost them up; which Means while VIX indices also reach the support level, and forecast that VIX will stable down at 23.20 to 23.50 and will spike up again. Please beware if you want to go into equity market.

Conclusion

However, this round the capital flow when market equities crashed, and USD was not as strong as in previous months, as it likely headed to the precious commodity such as metal as safety assets than US Bond Yield, what makes this sentiment? As FED is almost end of tightening and the CDS has shown 1st HH in results, it would take time to let CDS create 2nd HH after US interest rate reaches 4.7%. Let's see!