Future Outlook of USD
FED, has raised the interest rate from 0.25%(May'22) up to 4.0% (Nov'22), and the US inflation been tame down, and FED Powell has indicated that they might hold the monetary for certain period before next moves, this obviously indicates the FED almost in "End of tightening " cycle. As conclusion , DOVISH!
ECB Lagarde has indicated to normalise its monetary policy and it has raised interest rate from 0% to 2%. However the Euro Area inflation remains high up to 10% and ECB would phase its responsibility to continue to QT to fight overheat economy. It is in process of "Early to Mid of tightening" cycle. In summary , EUR has big potential to continue upside till next January (mid).
SNB, has changed its monetary policy from -0.75% to 0.5% ( from Safety asset currency to low yield currency). Its CPI and Core CPI remains at 3% and 2% compared to past over 5 years that remain below 1%. Thus SNB has stated to continue to tap the monetary policy for necessary. Currently SNB next monetary meeting will be on 15th Dec, which market expectation that the Interest Hikes would take place for another 50bps , thus CHF is likely to get strength from the expectation.
So for this coming week, let's see the European major currencies : USD / EUR / CHF which are more in category under safety currency behaviours (in previous), Now FED hold on monetary policy, ECB likely more on QT decision, SNB expected on Interest Hike again on 15th Dec 2022. So we could spot USDCHF as major indicator to gauge the USD strength, however EURCHF would remain bearish, and EURUSD remain big swing up and down (more to upside, depends on CHF strength from now to 15th Dec 2022).
We can refer the article from ING THINK to find out the expert views to support my ideas above on Outlook Trend coming up for USD.