The market is still waiting for the FED Minutes update on the following interest rate announcement. During the last update in January 2023, I shared forecast movement on several trading theme pairs. Let's review the status of whether our forecast is moving in the same direction as per market sentiment.
Outlook Trend: USD
Previous
analysis, we are expecting capital outflow from USD dollar and Dollar Index
will have a bounce to send DXY to supply zone around 106 and only extend its
downswing to support level 102.
What I posted
on 4th Jan 2023:
What market
reacted as at 10.03.2023:
DXY had moved
up to supply zone at 106 level. We are still expecting dovish USD dollar and
could send to next support level around 102.
Trading Theme: USD/JPY
Previous post
mentioned that JPY serves as a safety currency and expected dovish of USD/JPY
pair.
What I posted
on 10th Jan 2023:
What market
reacted as at 10.03.2023:
USDJPY had
retraced up to 138 level and closed at 135 on Friday market close. We are
expecting it will downswing to demand zone 127 to 131.
Trading Theme: VXXB
What I posted
on 10th Jan 2023:
What market
reacted as at 10.03.2023:
VXX move
uptrend accordingly as expected.
Japan Government Bond
What I posted on 10th Jan 2023:
What market
reacted as at 10.03.2023:
Japan government bond had shown an ERC uptrend at 147.5 level and move sideways as per analysis. We are speculating it will swing upwards to next supply zone 148.8.
Trading Theme: AUD/JPY
What I posted
on 10th Jan 2023:
What market reacted as at 10.03.2023:
AUDJPY first
had retraced to supply zone area at 92 area and immediately bearish candle
appear. We are speculating it will move down to next lower-level demand zone
around 80 level when market start to risk off and yen will rally.
Overall, this
is the review on the trading theme as discussed above, the big direction of
market movement still in line with our analysis done in January 2023.
In summary, we
are considering bearish trend for USD and stronger
trend for JPY.